Homines libenter quod volunt credunt (Men believe what they want to) ~ Publius Terentius
The warming of the earth is a non geographic, international issue that needs instant action and relief from negative and uninformed discourse. There is one internationally respected authority climate organization that is the worlds expert, is run by the UN, includes members from over 120 countries and called the Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To have any knowledge of climate change requires knowing that the IPCC is the worlds expert as set forth in their 5 assessments to date on the state of the world’s climate and their receipt of the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 “for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change”, there is no international or otherwise recognized opposition scientific group. Opposite and contrarian research is debated within the Science based peer review process, it happens every day. Not all scientists agree with each other. The IPCC is headquartered in Geneva, has 1000’s of climate experts who do no research but only study peer reviewed research and data from worldwide sources and then combine it to come to a general consensus on the state of the climate. The next (6th) assessment is due in 2022.
No one person can be considered an expert on the reality of Climate Change and not one or multiple weather events can be conclusive to the current symptoms of Climate Change. Events that people jump onto like a bandwagon in the for or against war are most likely anecdotal because we won’t know for sure the true effects until more time, evidence and disasters have materialized. There is one fact I can guarantee and it doesn’t include climate refugees it will be where to bury all the bodies if we continue to pollute the atmosphere.
Greenhouse Gases are gases in the earths atmosphere that absorb and emit radiation from the sun and regulate the temperature and climate on Earth. Without Greenhouse Gases and the Greenhouse Effect man would not exist and the temperature on earth would be well below freezing worldwide. The main Greenhouse Gases that we need to know are Carbon Dioxide, Nitrous Oxide, Methane, Ozone and Water Vapor. For now lets concentrate on the culprit du jour Carbon Dioxide.
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) in the upper atmosphere.
Let me be crystal clear on this, CO2 bonding with infrared and some visible light in the upper atmosphere isn’t a political issue and doesn’t belong to a political party on any part of the planet. It is neither a cause of the Left or Right in the USA. The responsibility belongs to everyone.
The reason the earth is warming is that, primarily, the rising CO2 levels from burning of fossil fuels are causing the earths ability to reflect light/heat/radiation from the sun back into space and would normally do so but now is bouncing around inside the atmosphere where it ends up in the world’s oceans. This is not good for multiple reasons. The current levels of CO2 in the atmosphere are over 400 ppm (parts per million in volume but commonly interwoven as ppm, parts per million measured in metric tons). We find the best history of the amount of CO2 levels through ice cores in the Antarctic where the thickness of the ice sheets alone can be in the thousands of feet and each year is compressed into a very thin sample per core that can be sliced, diced and the gas bubbles trapped inside can be analyzed back in time up to 800,000 years. There are other methods as well especially in fossils where carbon provides a history that can be accessed via radioactive analysis and we have accurate surface temperature measurements going back over 200 years. Science has seen and proved that the rise in CO2 levels clearly coincide with the years since the start of man’s industrial age. The last time we had CO2 levels of those of the current and higher was in the Eocene age that started 56 million years ago and the earth was still in a formative stage where we had no ice on the planet, ocean levels were 300 feet higher and, depending on who you listen to, crocodiles might have lived at the north pole and the west coast of North America was ripe with palm trees.
PH of Oceans worldwide
As CO2 bonds with infrared light and can’t escape back into space it bounces off the upper atmosphere and land until it is absorbed in the Oceans that act as a heat sync for the planet and does so in an acidic form. As the Oceans are very high in alkalinity i.e. salt base, this is causing the Oceans to become more acidic. Additionally the new acids don’t sink to the bottom, as it can take up to 100 years to fully stir the worlds oceans, but instead they sit in the top 500 feet of the waters where the majority of sea life lives.
The current Ocean Ph is 8.1 but it should be 8.2, its taken us only 200 years to lower the Ph by 1/10th of a Ph unit and that doesn’t sound like a lot but it represents a change in the acidity by an increase of 25% in the last 200 years. It is currently on the decline and will continue to do so with an exponential fate only definable by models and time but the effects to sea life could start to become fatal if we get down to a ph of 8.0, which is likely. Already there are signs of sea life fading because of the current changes. Ultimately this will translate to higher tides as the waters warm, genetic changes to sea life as it trys to adapt, acid rain, loss of crop land you name it the potential problems are endless. The most likely evidence we will see in the near future are lots of dead fish.
Ocean Acidification Explained
Ice Shelfs are what have most commonly made the news when it comes to melting in the Antarctic that has been particularly stable for 1000’s of years and contains up to 80% of the worlds ice. Particularly the collapse of Larsen Ice Shelf B in ’02 and a huge breakup of Larsen ice shelf C in ’17; so big that it will cause world maps to be redrawn. Will the breakup of these and others cause the seas to rise? With any deteriorating effect probably not. Ice shelfs sit on top of sea water so they are already part of the ocean, They are important, as is all ice, in that it is the most effective reflector of the heat from the Sun back into space where it comes from and act as retaining walls to land based Ice Sheets. With less Ice we get more heat into the atmosphere via less reflectivity and it will continue, again, exponentially as ice continues to melt.
An Ice Sheet on the other hand is the ice that sits atop land in the antartarctic and when that melts we get big problems. The bad news is it already is. When scientists drill through it to take samples whether they be visual or for analytical purposes they find rivers of running water deep in the ice sheets. At the moment the ice shelfs are retaining the ice sheets but if the sheets do melt they’ll put pressure on the shelfs to separate from the land based sheets and the sheets will slide into the ocean much like a calving glacier does albeit much more violently. The separation of more ice shelfs could free up pressure on the sheets to slide into the ocean exposing the antarctic land as well. This will cause the doomsday of climate change that we hear on the news but is never truly explained to the masses. A melting of all the ice in the Antarctic would cause the seas to rise by 200′. Melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet would cause the oceans to rise an additional 20′. This will give beachfront property a whole new meaning although this isn’t likely for 100-200 years but don’t be mistaken that it may come much quicker. There is time for action because ultimately the future of humanity is at stake.
I think my position is clear, I am for any climate measures as long as they’re based on peer reviewed real science and put us onto the path of decarbonization thru the use of Energy Dense methods to produce clean energy. The Conservative position is not to play dumb and deny deny deny it’s to point out the absurdities in the Democratic agenda of claiming renewables like Solar and Wind driven powers will somehow magically lift us from our eternal fate. The only way out of this is via cooperation never before seen on a global scale. It is not a job killer it is a job saver and a life saver or we’ll ultimately become part of the 99% and thats not representative of a number of scientists who believe in climate change like its a religion, it refers to the 99% of species on Earth who are no longer with us.
Extinction, lets prove we have the intelligence to avoid it.
Do you think a Pause really happened? Think again.
The Pause or Global Hiatus we keep hearing about after, once again, review of the peer reviewed evidence never happened because hindsight is always 20/20. Predicting something with 100% certainty is not. Don’t confuse Scientific Uncertainty with doubt. If you look at the weather report on your smart phone and it says there’s an 80% chance of rain but it doesn’t rain that’s not a hoax made up in China it’s scientific uncertainty.
Global air temps had risen very quickly in the previous years and the temps of the oceans did the catching up during this time starting in 1998 and ending anywhere from 2007 to 2014 depending on what climate denier you listen to and the ocean temps were underestimated. It’s no more simple than that but I urge you to not take my word for it do your own research and come to your own conclusion. The links provided will give you ample analysis to investigate further.